Geostrategic Europe Taskforce shows the EU controls several supply chain chokepoints it can use to deter the US and China

Munich/Brussels - Ahead of this week’s Munich Security Conference, a new report by the Geostrategic Europe Taskforce challenges one of the most persistent assumptions in Europe’s security debate: that Europe lacks leverage and power. 

For the first time, the report shows that the EU controls 67 critical supply-chain chokepoints vis-à-vis the US and 41 vis-à-vis China. So far, it has failed to use them to protect its interests. The numbers directly respond to this week's wake-up call by Emmanuel Macron, who said, “Europe should not underestimate its strengths” and must transform them “into levers of geopolitical force, before other powers pull so far ahead.”

This leverage stems from EU exports of essential inputs including insulin, chemicals, pharmaceutical inputs, and specialised machinery that are not quickly substitutable. These are supply-chains where China and the US depend on EU imports for more than 80% of its imports.

“Europe has mistaken strategic autonomy for power. To build global influence, Europe needs to go further – using its geoeconomic leverage to forge coalitions around shared security challenges such as decarbonisation and AI. We need to stop downplaying our strengths. From engineering and clean technologies to pharmaceutical molecules, the EU is stronger than it thinks,” said Jonathan Barth, Chair of the Geostrategic Europe Taskforce and author of the report.

Europe’s leverage can be significantly amplified through strategic coalitions with like-minded middle powers. Pooling economic chokepoints and coordinating export controls with partners like Canada would more than double (+138%) European leverage vis-à-vis the United States. Similar cooperation with countries such as Japan, South Korea, Brazil or Malaysia could shift the balance of power vis-à-vis both the US and China in a post-WTO environment.

The report calls on European leaders to establish a “Platform for Economic Security, Trade and Technology Cooperation”. This platform would renew the rules-based order within like-minded coalitions, structured around four mutually reinforcing pillars (four D’s): Deterrence through pooled leverage; Distinction between members and non-members in market access and benefits; Decarbonisation as a source of resilience; and Development of future markets through deep cooperation.

The report is published this week to inform debates at the Munich Security Conference, where economic security, climate risk, and Europe’s position between the United States and China are expected to feature prominently.